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VIDEO: The Tyranny of Numbers (Hypothetically); Mutahi Ngunyi Predicts a Jubilee Alliance Win

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Mutahi Ngunyi, Kenya’s renowned political scientist has taken to YouTube to hypothetically analyze the IEBC voter registration numbers. According to him, the elections were won on December 18th 2012 by Jubilee alliance based on the voter mobilization and registration in their ethnic strongholds.
Of course no media house in Kenya can touch this analysis since it is based on a historical assumption that Kenyan will vote along tribal lines.

Mutahi Ngunyi however fails to put the following into consideration

  • CORD and Amani coalitions effect on the Rift Valley votes
  • CORD effect on the western vote
  • How he came up with the aggregated GEMA numbers
  • How he distributes Nairobi county numbers
  • The tribal voting blocks are not contiguous e.g Kiambu is a cosmopolitan county and not all the 800K plus votes are GEMA

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